Week 1: Opening Shows v SP and Bookmakers v Betfair

A little later than anticipated due to my uncertainty in how best to present the data but questions I would like to answer during 2014 are:

•           When is it best to place your bets? Opening Shows v SP
•           Where is it best place your bets? Befair v Bookmakers

Although I am sure I already know the answer to question 1, question 2 is a matter of longevity. Sustained periods of success will soon have restrictions placed on your accounts with bookmakers offering BOG. You can only jump through their hoops, opening new accounts in the names of family members for so long before the process becomes messy and time consuming before seeking a workable alternative.

My multi-purpose 3 pronged betting strategy for 2014 will be as follows:

• Continuing with BOG Bookmakers
• Placing an order on Betfair 10% above the bookmakers opening show checking ‘Take SP’ for unmatched bets (This is merely a starting point and may well be adjusted during the year)
• Placing an order in the place market on Betfair at 25% of No 2 checking ‘Take SP’ for unmatched bets.

1 versus 2 will allow a comparison between Bookmakers and Betfair with the +10% order on the later offering adequate compensation on matched winning bets to cover potential losses on winning selections that fail to achieve the opening show during the maturity of the Betfair market with the provision of checking the ‘Take SP’ for the unmatched bets. The 10% will also assist in covering commission charges.

3 is to slow down losses during the inevitable bad periods across the course of the year. I am not looking for major profits by adopting this approach but I am hopeful in returning my win stake on at around 50% of losing bets which matches with the ratio of placed horses.  

To give an idea of what this looks like, here are the returns on subscriber’s selections during week 1 of 2014 to affordable £10 stakes.

Not that there will be any wisdom in making any bold claims from week 1 but there is no surprise in finding such a large discrepancies between opening shows and SP. In following The Actuary advice on taking opening shows we have a profit of £195.65. At SP this would have been reduced to a profit of £5.65 on the Bookmaker bets.

This was a little more surprising. Our orders at +10% of Bookmakers opening shows on the Betfair market was marginally better returning £203.87 taking our total profit for the week to £399.52. Again, this our orders out played SP and would have reduced our profit to £13.87.

Finally, our placed bets for Week 1 provided a return on 13 of 25 selections although I did opt not to place a bet in this category on La Estrella for obvious reasons. Although the object of the exercise in placing the ‘Place’ bets to provide a little comfort during bad periods was met, my overwhelming feeling is that the return is poor for the level of investment.

In summary, adopting The Actuary strategy of taking opening shows + ordering at +10% on Betfair + Place bets at 25% of the Betfair win order returned a profit of £401.52 on all subscribers selection at £10 stakes during week 1. This is opposed to £19.52 at SP.

I hope this is of interest and enlightening for you and will update shortly on 8^th – 14^th Januarry 2014

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/week-1-opening-shows-v-sp-and.html