THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

VDW Methodology

Racing is a highly complex subject, full of controversy and abounding in aspects amenable to infinite interpretation. And it is a world where aspirations of millions is to find that pot of gold which will surely come when the infallible system falls into their lap!

Few ever reach their goal, not because it is unattainable but because they lack temperament and unwittingly stack the odds against themselves. Every day huge sums of money are thrown away by the hoards who haphazardly select a horse from this meeting or that .

Not content with irrational selection they further put the odds against themselves by coupling a number of horses in multiple bets. It may seem like fun to dream of a fabulous windfall, but I warrant it creates considerable frustration.

Little wonder is the common belief that only the bookmaker can win in the end. This I know to be untrue, but success can only come by putting aside compulsive gambling ways and making a new beginning using logical and positive methods.Initially it means coming to terms with yourself and creating that indispensable asset, temperament.

When you can view the situation completely without emotion and making judgment on real evidence something comes to the fore. Intuition, know how, mentor call it what you will, the fact remains without it two plus two will make three, five or what have you, but seldom four as it should.

To a large extent the art of successful punting is dependent upon the ability to appraise odds and never go against them. This does not mean never taking an odds on price which is something completely different.
If the true calculated odds are 3-1 on and you can strike a wager at 6-4 on it is a value bet.

A single factor, time, form, class, etc, will not achieve consistent results. Many rely heavily upon ratings, but there can be a high degree of variation between compilers. You might assume, and probably expect the official ratings and Phil Bull's much respected Timeform to show a high degree of uniformity, but this is not the case.

Take just one example, the two Derby winners -and you can't get better class than that-Henbit and Blakeney. The official figures show the latter to be 8lb superior, but Timeform go completely opposite making Henbit 7lb better. Over a stone difference which makes nonsense of calculations.

Conclusion.....regard ratings only as a guide in association with other factors.

Form, even though consistent, can mislead if taken alone when the horse is running against others with greater ability. 

Class which in my view is a major factor, can throw you of course if the horse is out of form, so to establish a reliable measure a combination of elements must be used to achieve consistent results. To find elements which can be combined and used methodically requires considerable thought and each must be logical. There are numerous ways to approach the problem of winner finding methodically and the one which I demonstrate has proved highly successful and consistent for a considerable number of years. Each element was selected after a great deal of research and when used as intended will place the odds strongly in the backers' favour.
Form is considered a major factor to winner-finding and what is form if it is not that one performance is better than another?

Horses who consistently perform better than others should then command interest. My own extensive surveys show that a horse winning three races in a row is likely to extend the sequence by a further victory at a ratio of one to three.

Expressed as a percentage it is 33%, considerably better than 2% which is the representative odds of a horse that has failed to reach the hunt on its last three outings.

Consistent horses win races and to illustrate I will give some examples which show percentage wins next time out from various form combinations.....111 33%, 121 32%, 131 29%, 141 26%, 122 30%, 313 24%, 214 24%, 404 5%, 000 2%.

The figures show beyond reasonable doubt that consistent form does have an important part to play. If there are three horses each having won their last three races the figures indicate that it is almost certain one of them should win 33%+33%+33%=99%.

Only about one chance in a hundred that the winner will come from elsewhere, so it would be going against the odds to select any other horse.

THE VDW METHOD

Taking all races other figures show that 83% of winners come from the first five quotes in the betting forecast. This also shows that selecting a horse which does not appear in this range is again tantamount to going against the odds. The only exception I make to this is when a highly consistent horse fails to show in this area of the forecast.

It may be that the horse is outclassed in the present company but a check should always be made.

The combination of these two factors narrows the field to an area which consistently produces a high percentage of winners. Calculating the three most consistent horses by adding together the last three form lacing's from the first five (non handicaps) and the first six (handicaps) center attention where it is positively alive with winners.

When making these calculations it is necessary to use a little judgment. Basically it is a simple addition of the last three form lacing's, but it does happen that a horse may have had only one or two outings.

In such cases assume that it would have performed at the same standard as its last form placing, i.e., a horse placed fourth and third would be considered to have run into third place once more giving a total of ten.

Other factors in the assessment will either support it or show it to be over compensated. Form figures should be taken to the ninth place at par value but beyond this calculate it as 10 i.e., 3-16-4 =17 (3+10+4). Horses shown as last should be given an assessment of 10 for this performance but do let common sense prevail. If it is last of 7 beaten five lengths there is a world of difference to one last of 20 beaten out of sight. Also use discretion in the case of a highly consistent horse that suddenly puts in, what might seem at first, a bad one. It could have been put into a race where it had no chance which is not the same as if it had blown its top.

If the former is the case, common sense should show how to deal with the situation. This is a methodical approach not a systematic one, so observe intelligent judgment. 

A third factor which will further assist putting the odds in the backers favour is appraisal of the spoils involved. Figures show it can confidently be expected that a horse with the right qualifications will seldom fail to carry of the prize when it is big enough. Selecting races for application of the various factors must be methodical as well.

The basic method is to select the race from each card having the highest prize money but for obvious reasons it would not be wise to use a novice hurdle full of nondescript animals.

It often happens that other races on a card will lend themselves to this method especially at the principal meeting but endeavor to keep as far as possible to the upper limits. Moving away from the basic principle starts to put the odds against you.

Attention is going to be centered on the better class races, so it must follow that the better class horses should be looked for. There are many conflicting views as to what class really is and I have heard some strange definitions. I believe it is more realistic to base class on what a horse has actually done in public not by any other means.

Class should be defined as ability and to assess the merit of one against the other, it becomes necessary to compile a rating.

This can quickly and easily be done by considering the prize money won to date in hundreds of pounds and dividing it by the number of races won. For example a horse has won eight races worth a total of £20,000 (200 hundreds) so to find it's ability rating  divide 200 by 8 which equals 25. This rating gives one of the most reliable assessments of a horse but always remember it must be used as a guide in conjunction with other factors.

It can be used methodically as the basic factor and when all other elements line up in support the horse concerned is seldom beaten. This point will be shown in an illustrated race, but always keep in mind it is a rating and as such, can and will prove false if used incorrectly.

To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc. but always keep in mind they are a guide. 

I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures but this is not essential.

This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but in fact it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.
2. Consider next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire fields for ability.
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the forecast.
6. Apply selected rating method to entire fields.

To illustrate the whole procedure I will demonstrate using the weekend cards for Saturday, March 7, 1981.

Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and the three most consistent from the forecast. In the illustrations this is done with an asterisk (*)

Forecast: Evens Wayward Lad, 5/4 Little Owl, 14 Fairy King, 20 Mr.Kidd

At this stage do not make any automatic assumptions. The required data has been put together and it is now necessary to establish if any of the three portable's have good claims for support. Always start appraisal by looking at the horse with the highest ability rating and check how it balances with the other data.

In this race everything is straightforward . Little Owl has the highest ability rating and there is nothing in the other elements to suggest any upset, indeed all evidence shows it ought to be a good thing . To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race.

When you have followed the method for some time it is easy to turn back to your records concerning a given horse and it will help to balance respective performances.

This race clearly shows that Little Owl is a racing certainty and when the true odds are calculated a price better than 3/1 on would represent value. Wayward Lad is obviously a false forecast favorite and if it were to remain so on course the chance of a very fine bet would be there.

Little Owl Won 4/5

Many racing certainties start at much better odds than this.

Forecast: 7/2 King or Country, 9/2 Tragus, 11/2 Bobjob, 6 Sunset Cristo, 7 The Engineer, Fair View, 12 Bregawn, 14 The Vintner

Fair View with the highest ability rating is not at present consistent and the other data does not give any boost. Tragus made a mess of things and weakened to 12th in it's last race and was then pulled up before the 14th which tells it's own story.

Sunset Cristo, a close joint second on ability, super consistent and other data lends support. The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it, Silver Buck, Another Captain etc. The Engineer does not have the ability to gain the upper hand on the run in if it got into the hunt in the closing stages and King or Country does not have anything going for it.

Another case of a false forecast favorite so Sunset Cristo should be a good bet.

Sunset Cristo Won 5/1


Forecast: 2 Kenlis, 9/4 Master Brutus, 4 Magic Tipp, 6 Turk, 13/2 Greenways, 12 Silberto, 16 Brown Barman, 25 others.

This procedure shows Kenlis to be a good thing but note how the relative ability of the whole field is like a blanket. Also note the penultimate race of Turk, last of seven, made no show and beaten out of sight. Calculate the performance as ten when totting up previous form figures. So far this is the only genuine forecast favorite.

Kenlis Won 11/4

The spade work is all complete and it can be seen there is a possible winner for each race but once again the odds must be weighed. Providing a reasonable price can be obtained Little Owl will be taken because it is a racing certainty. Sunset Cristo will also be taken as it is almost a certainty. Remember it is all tied up with temperament and odds.

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Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?


VDW Methodology

Racing is a highly complex subject, full of controversy and abounding in aspects amenable to infinite interpretation. And it is a world where aspirations of millions is to find that pot of gold which will surely come when the infallible system falls into their lap!

Few ever reach their goal, not because it is unattainable but because they lack temperament and unwittingly stack the odds against themselves. Every day huge sums of money are thrown away by the hoards who haphazardly select a horse from this meeting or that .

Not content with irrational selection they further put the odds against themselves by coupling a number of horses in multiple bets. It may seem like fun to dream of a fabulous windfall, but I warrant it creates considerable frustration.

Little wonder is the common belief that only the bookmaker can win in the end. This I know to be untrue, but success can only come by putting aside compulsive gambling ways and making a new beginning using logical and positive methods.Initially it means coming to terms with yourself and creating that indispensable asset, temperament.

When you can view the situation completely without emotion and making judgment on real evidence something comes to the fore. Intuition, know how, mentor call it what you will, the fact remains without it two plus two will make three, five or what have you, but seldom four as it should.

To a large extent the art of successful punting is dependent upon the ability to appraise odds and never go against them. This does not mean never taking an odds on price which is something completely different.
If the true calculated odds are 3-1 on and you can strike a wager at 6-4 on it is a value bet.

A single factor, time, form, class, etc, will not achieve consistent results. Many rely heavily upon ratings, but there can be a high degree of variation between compilers. You might assume, and probably expect the official ratings and Phil Bull's much respected Timeform to show a high degree of uniformity, but this is not the case.

Take just one example, the two Derby winners -and you can't get better class than that-Henbit and Blakeney. The official figures show the latter to be 8lb superior, but Timeform go completely opposite making Henbit 7lb better. Over a stone difference which makes nonsense of calculations.

Conclusion.....regard ratings only as a guide in association with other factors.

Form, even though consistent, can mislead if taken alone when the horse is running against others with greater ability. 

Class which in my view is a major factor, can throw you of course if the horse is out of form, so to establish a reliable measure a combination of elements must be used to achieve consistent results. To find elements which can be combined and used methodically requires considerable thought and each must be logical. There are numerous ways to approach the problem of winner finding methodically and the one which I demonstrate has proved highly successful and consistent for a considerable number of years. Each element was selected after a great deal of research and when used as intended will place the odds strongly in the backers' favour.
Form is considered a major factor to winner-finding and what is form if it is not that one performance is better than another?

Horses who consistently perform better than others should then command interest. My own extensive surveys show that a horse winning three races in a row is likely to extend the sequence by a further victory at a ratio of one to three.

Expressed as a percentage it is 33%, considerably better than 2% which is the representative odds of a horse that has failed to reach the hunt on its last three outings.

Consistent horses win races and to illustrate I will give some examples which show percentage wins next time out from various form combinations.....111 33%, 121 32%, 131 29%, 141 26%, 122 30%, 313 24%, 214 24%, 404 5%, 000 2%.

The figures show beyond reasonable doubt that consistent form does have an important part to play. If there are three horses each having won their last three races the figures indicate that it is almost certain one of them should win 33%+33%+33%=99%.

Only about one chance in a hundred that the winner will come from elsewhere, so it would be going against the odds to select any other horse.

THE VDW METHOD

Taking all races other figures show that 83% of winners come from the first five quotes in the betting forecast. This also shows that selecting a horse which does not appear in this range is again tantamount to going against the odds. The only exception I make to this is when a highly consistent horse fails to show in this area of the forecast.

It may be that the horse is outclassed in the present company but a check should always be made.

The combination of these two factors narrows the field to an area which consistently produces a high percentage of winners. Calculating the three most consistent horses by adding together the last three form lacing's from the first five (non handicaps) and the first six (handicaps) center attention where it is positively alive with winners.

When making these calculations it is necessary to use a little judgment. Basically it is a simple addition of the last three form lacing's, but it does happen that a horse may have had only one or two outings.

In such cases assume that it would have performed at the same standard as its last form placing, i.e., a horse placed fourth and third would be considered to have run into third place once more giving a total of ten.

Other factors in the assessment will either support it or show it to be over compensated. Form figures should be taken to the ninth place at par value but beyond this calculate it as 10 i.e., 3-16-4 =17 (3+10+4). Horses shown as last should be given an assessment of 10 for this performance but do let common sense prevail. If it is last of 7 beaten five lengths there is a world of difference to one last of 20 beaten out of sight. Also use discretion in the case of a highly consistent horse that suddenly puts in, what might seem at first, a bad one. It could have been put into a race where it had no chance which is not the same as if it had blown its top.

If the former is the case, common sense should show how to deal with the situation. This is a methodical approach not a systematic one, so observe intelligent judgment. 

A third factor which will further assist putting the odds in the backers favour is appraisal of the spoils involved. Figures show it can confidently be expected that a horse with the right qualifications will seldom fail to carry of the prize when it is big enough. Selecting races for application of the various factors must be methodical as well.

The basic method is to select the race from each card having the highest prize money but for obvious reasons it would not be wise to use a novice hurdle full of nondescript animals.

It often happens that other races on a card will lend themselves to this method especially at the principal meeting but endeavor to keep as far as possible to the upper limits. Moving away from the basic principle starts to put the odds against you.

Attention is going to be centered on the better class races, so it must follow that the better class horses should be looked for. There are many conflicting views as to what class really is and I have heard some strange definitions. I believe it is more realistic to base class on what a horse has actually done in public not by any other means.

Class should be defined as ability and to assess the merit of one against the other, it becomes necessary to compile a rating.

This can quickly and easily be done by considering the prize money won to date in hundreds of pounds and dividing it by the number of races won. For example a horse has won eight races worth a total of £20,000 (200 hundreds) so to find it's ability rating  divide 200 by 8 which equals 25. This rating gives one of the most reliable assessments of a horse but always remember it must be used as a guide in conjunction with other factors.

It can be used methodically as the basic factor and when all other elements line up in support the horse concerned is seldom beaten. This point will be shown in an illustrated race, but always keep in mind it is a rating and as such, can and will prove false if used incorrectly.

To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc. but always keep in mind they are a guide. 

I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures but this is not essential.

This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but in fact it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.
2. Consider next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire fields for ability.
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the forecast.
6. Apply selected rating method to entire fields.

To illustrate the whole procedure I will demonstrate using the weekend cards for Saturday, March 7, 1981.

Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and the three most consistent from the forecast. In the illustrations this is done with an asterisk (*)

Forecast: Evens Wayward Lad, 5/4 Little Owl, 14 Fairy King, 20 Mr.Kidd

At this stage do not make any automatic assumptions. The required data has been put together and it is now necessary to establish if any of the three portable's have good claims for support. Always start appraisal by looking at the horse with the highest ability rating and check how it balances with the other data.

In this race everything is straightforward . Little Owl has the highest ability rating and there is nothing in the other elements to suggest any upset, indeed all evidence shows it ought to be a good thing . To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race.

When you have followed the method for some time it is easy to turn back to your records concerning a given horse and it will help to balance respective performances.

This race clearly shows that Little Owl is a racing certainty and when the true odds are calculated a price better than 3/1 on would represent value. Wayward Lad is obviously a false forecast favorite and if it were to remain so on course the chance of a very fine bet would be there.

Little Owl Won 4/5

Many racing certainties start at much better odds than this.

Forecast: 7/2 King or Country, 9/2 Tragus, 11/2 Bobjob, 6 Sunset Cristo, 7 The Engineer, Fair View, 12 Bregawn, 14 The Vintner

Fair View with the highest ability rating is not at present consistent and the other data does not give any boost. Tragus made a mess of things and weakened to 12th in it's last race and was then pulled up before the 14th which tells it's own story.

Sunset Cristo, a close joint second on ability, super consistent and other data lends support. The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it, Silver Buck, Another Captain etc. The Engineer does not have the ability to gain the upper hand on the run in if it got into the hunt in the closing stages and King or Country does not have anything going for it.

Another case of a false forecast favorite so Sunset Cristo should be a good bet.

Sunset Cristo Won 5/1


Forecast: 2 Kenlis, 9/4 Master Brutus, 4 Magic Tipp, 6 Turk, 13/2 Greenways, 12 Silberto, 16 Brown Barman, 25 others.

This procedure shows Kenlis to be a good thing but note how the relative ability of the whole field is like a blanket. Also note the penultimate race of Turk, last of seven, made no show and beaten out of sight. Calculate the performance as ten when totting up previous form figures. So far this is the only genuine forecast favorite.

Kenlis Won 11/4

The spade work is all complete and it can be seen there is a possible winner for each race but once again the odds must be weighed. Providing a reasonable price can be obtained Little Owl will be taken because it is a racing certainty. Sunset Cristo will also be taken as it is almost a certainty. Remember it is all tied up with temperament and odds.

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